Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 081940
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Mon Nov 08 2021
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States today.
...20Z Update...
Based on recent short-term guidance, a small adjustment has been
made to the southern extent of the general thunderstorm area across
parts of northern/central CA. Occasional lightning flashes still
appear possible later tonight into early Tuesday morning across this
region, but weak elevated instability should keep the overall threat
for lightning fairly isolated.
..Gleason.. 11/08/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Nov 08 2021/
...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Amplifying cyclonic westerlies will occur along the West Coast
through tonight. Low-level moistening and destabilization, along
with a late-period steepening of mid-level lapse rates, will support
the possibility of isolated lightning flashes tonight in association
with inland-spreading precipitation. A stronger or more
organized/sustained thunderstorm or two might occur near the
northern California and/or far southwest Oregon coasts late tonight,
although severe storms are not expected.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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