Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 091941
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Tue Nov 09 2021
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or locally damaging wind gust is possible this
afternoon, mainly across a portion of western Washington.
...20z update...
The previous outlook reasoning remains on track, and no changes were
made with this issuance. Please refer to MCD 1933 for the latest
short-term thinking regarding severe potential across portions of
coastal Washington.
..Bunting.. 11/09/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 09 2021/
...Western Washington/northwest Oregon...
A shortwave trough and related cold front will continue to move
eastward/inland through the afternoon. Via cloud breaks and a
trough-associated pocket of -30C 500 mb temperatures, low/mid-level
lapse rates will steadily steepen this afternoon, with a few hundred
J/kg SBCAPE expected to be maximized along the Washington Coast.
This may be sufficient for some semi-stout/sustained low-topped
thunderstorms, with strong deep-layer southwesterly winds
potentially supportive of organized clusters and possibly a
weak/transient supercell or two. A brief tornado and/or convectively
enhanced damaging wind gust will be possible, particularly in
near-coastal Washington areas this afternoon.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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