Nov 11, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 11 05:27:46 UTC 2021 (20211111 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211111 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211111 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211111 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211111 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211111 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 110527

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1127 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough across the Mid-South will lift northeastward into
   the Ohio Valley today. Farther west, another shortwave trough will
   accelerate southeastward through the northern/central Plains. By the
   end of the period, a broad upper-level cyclone will develop in the
   upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the
   east from the Mississippi Valley to perhaps the Mid-Atlantic by
   Friday morning. The trailing portion of this front will arc
   southwestward through the Southeast and near the Gulf Coast. A
   surface cyclone will deepen in Wisconsin/Minnesota, becoming
   increasingly occluded from its narrow warm sector with time.

   The strongest mid-level forcing is expected to accompany the initial
   shortwave into parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. However, limited
   surface heating and low-level moistening will generally mean
   convection will remain rather shallow and struggle to produce
   lightning. Low-level wind fields may support a strong/damaging gust
   or two, but coverage is expected to be low. Greater buoyancy will
   exist within parts of the Southeast. Though a few storms will be
   possible along the front, departing mid-level forcing and poor
   mid-level lapse rates suggest storms will not be overly intense.

   ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 11/11/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z