Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 111248
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast through tonight.
...Deep South/TN Valley to Southeast and Lower Mid-Atlantic
States...
Nonzero, but very low severe potential is evident during the period.
Broad and weakening convective plume from IL to southeast TX should
evolve into a more broken swath through midday. Thunderstorms have
largely become confined to the southeast TX area, where a locally
strong wind gust is possible until the line clears the coast.
Pockets of more robust boundary-layer heating are expected ahead of
the precip swath in the Deep South, where just-in-time moisture
return might yield a corridor of weak surface-based buoyancy with
MLCAPE near 500 J/kg. This may narrowly overlap the southern extent
of stronger 850-mb flow in the AL vicinity where adequate around
40-kt effective bulk shear will exist as the Upper Midwest longwave
trough amplifies. Some intensification along residual convective
outflow might occur with low probability for a weakly rotating
updraft. Where stronger low-level winds will be present with
northern extent in the TN Valley, a low-topped line of showers
should evolve amid scant buoyancy with minimal thunderstorm
potential. Substantially weaker low-level flow behind the line
suggests convective wind gust potential will be limited.
Low-level moistening from off the south Atlantic Coast should
support meager surface-based buoyancy expanding overnight across the
eastern Carolinas into parts of VA. Some amplification of low-level
winds is expected east of the central and southern Appalachians as a
vigorous shortwave impulse progresses from the Mid-MS Valley to the
Great Lakes. This may overlap the northern extent of the scant
buoyancy plume and render potential for a weakly rotating storm or
two. Damaging wind and tornado probabilities at this time still
appear to be less than 5 and 2 percent respectively.
..Grams.. 11/11/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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