Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 111629
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
A broad upper trough is moving across the MS Valley, with an
embedded shortwave trough rotating into LA/MS/AL. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible today and tonight ahead of the associated
cold front as it moves across the Gulf Coast and TN Valley regions,
and eventually into the Mid-Atlantic late tonight.
...AL...
The one area of some concern for more robust convection will be over
parts of AL this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows partial
sun and moderate heating occurring. Low-level moisture is not
particularly high and CAM solutions suggest that convection along
the front will fail to become well-organized. However,
southwesterly low-level winds will be rather strong in this region,
supporting a risk of gusty thunderstorm winds if a cell or two can
develop bowing structures. This area will continue to be monitored
for an upgrade to MRGL in the afternoon update.
...VA/MD/PA...
Very strong wind fields and strong frontogenesis may help to
increase the risk of gusty winds as the front moves into the
Mid-Atlantic region late tonight. Present indications are that the
main risk will begin around 12z, so will not include severe wind
probabilities for this area at this time.
..Hart/Smith.. 11/11/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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