Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 140519
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CST Sat Nov 13 2021
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the CONUS today.
...Discussion...
Well-defined upper vort over MN is digging southeast as 500mb speed
max is expected to translate from the central Plains into the TN
Valley by late afternoon. Associated surface low/cold front will
cross into southwestern lower MI by 18z then advance into southern
ON by early evening. Strong cold advection across LM on the back
side of this feature will encourage lake convection as profiles cool
and lapse rates steepen. At this time it appears most of the
lake-induced convection will remain too shallow/weak to warrant
thunderstorm probabilities this period.
..Darrow.. 11/14/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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