Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 141936
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast today.
...Discussion...
There is no change to the previous forecast.
..Smith.. 11/14/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Nov 14 2021/
Dry and stable conditions will prevail across the CONUS today, with
no organized thunderstorms expected. One area with a very slight
chance of an occasional lightning flash would be tonight over
southern Lake Michigan, where cold temperatures aloft and warm lake
waters are present. However, this activity is expected to remain
below 10% coverage.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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