Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 150527
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
today.
...Synopsis...
A stable pattern will continue today as a large upper trough slowly
moves across the Northeast. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will move from
the Rockies into the Plains, as another upper trough dives into the
Pacific Northwest. Cool temperatures aloft may yield very weak
instability over parts of WA, but the bulk of this precipitation
will be without lightning.
High pressure will remain situated over the Southeast, maintaining
dry conditions there. Shallow low-level moisture return will begin
over TX late in the day, but little if any appreciable instability
will develop. As such, thunderstorms are not expected across the
CONUS today.
..Jewell.. 11/15/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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