Nov 16, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 16 04:46:35 UTC 2021 (20211116 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211116 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211116 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211116 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211116 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211116 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 160446

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1046 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United States
   today.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An amplified yet progressive pattern will exist today, with one
   trough exiting the Northeast and another deepening over the northern
   Plains. High pressure will remain over the Southeast, but will move
   off the Atlantic Coast as a surface low deepens over Manitoba.

   Southerly winds will increase across the Plains during the day, with
   a cold front pushing east across the Dakotas. Dewpoints in the 50s
   to near 60 F will stream north across the Ozarks, and behind a warm
   front overnight which will reach southern Lake Michigan by early
   Wednesday morning.

   Weak elevated instability is forecast to develop north of the warm
   front, from IA/IL by 00Z and into Lower MI overnight. Forecast
   soundings indicate that even elevated MUCAPE parcels may remain
   capped. As such, will maintain less than 10% thunderstorms chances,
   although an isolated flash cannot be ruled out overnight from WI
   into Lower MI.

   ..Jewell.. 11/16/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z