Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 161234
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United States
today.
...Synopsis...
A fairly progressive upper pattern is anticipated across the CONUS
today. The shortwave trough currently moving into the Great Basin is
forecast to continue eastward through the Four Corners and central
Rockies, while a more northerly shortwave trough deepens/matures
over the Canadian Prairie Provinces.
A deep surface low (associated with the maturing shortwave) is
currently centered over west-central Saskatchewan. This low is
expected to continue eastward throughout the day while becoming
increasingly occluded. A cold front attendant to this low will sweep
eastward/southeastward across the northern/central Plains and
Upper/Mid MS Valley. Strong low-level moisture advection will
precede this front, with upper 50s dewpoints reaching the mid MS
Valley late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Even with this moisture
advection, warm mid-levels will prevent thunderstorm development
throughout the warm sector from the southern Plains into Mid MS
Valley as well as over areas north of the warm front from the
Lower/Middle OH Valley into Lower MI.
Stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS as well.
..Mosier.. 11/16/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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