Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 161926
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United States
today.
...Discussion...
No changes to the existing outlook are required at this time.
Appreciable lightning activity is not anticipated through the
period.
..Goss.. 11/16/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021/
Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today.
An isolated lightning strike or two is possible this afternoon over
parts of WA/ID, and tonight over parts of MI along an advancing cold
front. However, coverage of these thunderstorms are expected to
remain below 10%.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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