Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 170455
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United
States today.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will move east from Manitoba into Ontario, with a broad
area of cyclonic flow aloft moving across the Plains and into the
upper Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will stretch
from Lower MI during the day southwestward into central TX, with
southerly winds resulting in 50s to perhaps lower 60s F dewpoints
ahead of it.
Lift along and behind the cold front should result in elevated
thunderstorms, mainly after 00Z, from southeast MO into AR. Poor
lapse rates aloft as well as weak overall MUCAPE of only a few
hundred J/kg will preclude any severe threat.
..Jewell/Lyons.. 11/17/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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