Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 171630
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021
Valid 171630Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United
States today.
A strong surface cold front will continue to sag southeastward
across the MS Valley and Great Lakes regions today. Warm
temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates will limit CAPE values along
the front and hamper the development of lightning from central IL
northward. Farther south, scattered elevated showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form along and immediately behind the
front by early evening, affecting the middle/lower MS valley
overnight. Other widely scattered thunderstorms are possible late
tonight over parts of south FL and south TX. No severe storms are
anticipated.
..Hart/Weinman.. 11/17/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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