Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 171928
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Wed Nov 17 2021
Valid 172000Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United
States today.
...Discussion...
No changes to the ongoing outlook are required at this time, with
continue expectations that showers and scattered/largely elevated
thunderstorms will evolve this evening and overnight near the
advancing surface cold front. No severe weather is expected.
..Goss.. 11/17/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021/
A strong surface cold front will continue to sag southeastward
across the MS Valley and Great Lakes regions today. Warm
temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates will limit CAPE values along
the front and hamper the development of lightning from central IL
northward. Farther south, scattered elevated showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form along and immediately behind the
front by early evening, affecting the middle/lower MS valley
overnight. Other widely scattered thunderstorms are possible late
tonight over parts of south FL and south TX. No severe storms are
anticipated.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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