Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 181949
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.
...Discussion...
Aside from a few minor thunder line adjustments, the ongoing outlook
continues to accurately reflect current expectations regarding
shower/isolated thunderstorm activity ongoing near and ahead of the
advancing eastern U.S. cold front. Severe weather is not expected
through the period.
..Goss.. 11/18/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021/
A relatively strong cold front is sagging southward across parts of
TX/LA/MS today, with widely scattered pockets of showers and
thunderstorms noted across the region. Forcing for ascent will
continue to weaken along the front this afternoon, with coverage of
convection becoming more sparse through the day.
An area of ongoing showers and thunderstorms over deep south TX will
build southward and out of the area by late this afternoon, ending
the risk of thunderstorms.
Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will persist over south
FL and adjacent offshore areas through the day. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop northward along the FL east coast this
afternoon where weak daytime heating will occur. No severe storms
are expected.
Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and tonight along the coast of GA/SC/NC, but most convection is
expected to remain offshore.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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