Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 190023
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. tonight.
...01Z Update...
Although the surface front is just now approaching northern and
middle Atlantic coastal areas, and likely will not reach southern
Atlantic coastal areas until late tonight, modest to weak moisture
return and relatively warm mid-levels ahead of it are generally
inhibiting destabilization supportive of thunderstorm development.
Model output, in general, continues to indicate that primary
thunderstorm development tonight will be focused offshore of the
southern Florida Atlantic coast into areas near/north of the
Bahamas, and near the Gulf stream, east of southern Mid Atlantic
coastal areas.
..Kerr/Lyons.. 11/19/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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