SPC AC 190500

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1100 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across most of the
   U.S. today through tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   Models indicate renewed amplification within the westerlies across
   the eastern Pacific during this period, including building mid-level
   ridging to the west of the Pacific coast.  However, flow across much
   of interior North America may continue to trend more zonal, in the
   wake of a significant mid-level trough now approaching the northern
   through middle Atlantic Seaboard.  

   The mid-level trough is forecast to progress into the Canadian
   Maritimes and off the U.S. coast today through tonight, with the
   center of an associated broad, occluded surface cyclone migrating
   from northern Quebec into the Labrador Sea.  While the trailing cold
   front will advance away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, it
   appears that it will gradually stall and weaken beneath the zonal
   regime across the Florida Peninsula.

   Generally dry and/or stable conditions will prevail across much of
   the U.S., but scattered thunderstorm activity is possible within a
   moist easterly pre-frontal low-level flow regime across parts of
   southern Florida, mainly the offshore Atlantic into the vicinity of
   eastern coastal areas.

   ..Kerr/Weinman/Dean.. 11/19/2021

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