Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 210049
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States.
...Discussion...
Scattered to isolated convective cells continue streaming westward
across eastern/coastal portions of south Florida, near a
remnant/diffuse surface front. A few lightning flashes occurred
earlier along the coast near Miami, and some potential for a few
inland flashes will continue this evening.
Farther west, showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will likely evolve
overnight across portions of northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and
into the mid Mississippi Valley area, in a zone of weak warm
advection. Lightning coverage is not expected to exceed 10%
coverage across the area, and thus does not appear to warrant
inclusion of a thunder area.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through
Sunday morning.
..Goss.. 11/21/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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