Nov 21, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 21 05:37:37 UTC 2021 (20211121 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211121 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211121 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211121 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211121 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211121 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 210537

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 PM CST Sat Nov 20 2021

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

   ...Discussion...
   Amplification of the upper flow field across the U.S. is expected
   Sunday, as a trough crossing the central U.S. strengthens as it
   shifts eastward, and ridging expands across the West.

   At the surface, a cold front is progged to surge rapidly
   southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Plains states through
   the first half of the period.  Overnight, the front will continue
   its rapid advance, shifting east of the Appalachians and into the
   Gulf of Mexico through Monday morning.

   Rain showers and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms will evolve near --
   and behind -- the surface front, initially across the lower Ohio/mid
   Mississippi Valleys and the Ozark Plateau, and then will expand
   southeastward with time into the Gulf Coastal states.  Other showers
   and occasional lightning will be possible across portions of
   southern Florida, and perhaps across the coastal North Carolina
   vicinity overnight.  In all areas, severe storms are not expected.

   ..Goss/Dean.. 11/21/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z