Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 211631
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Sun Nov 21 2021
Valid 211630Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms (a few strong) may affect parts of Arkansas, Louisiana
and Mississippi this afternoon into this evening, but organized
severe weather is not currently expected.
...Portions of Arkansas/ArkLaMiss...
Coincident with a broadly cyclonic upper-level flow regime,
thunderstorms should increase in coverage through the afternoon near
and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A couple of stronger
storms could materialize mainly late this afternoon/early evening
with the possibility of small hail and/or gusty winds. However,
persistent cloud cover and related weak lapse rates and minimal
buoyancy (only a few hundred J/kg CAPE) are expected to limit the
potential for organized/sustained severe storms.
..Guyer/Marsh.. 11/21/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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