Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
54,970
4,292,225
Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
54,970
4,292,225
Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...
SPC AC 211932
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
marginally severe hail and gusty winds may affect parts of Arkansas,
northern Louisiana and vicinity this afternoon into the early
evening.
...20Z Update...
A Marginal Risk for hail/wind has been added across parts of AR,
northern LA, and vicinity. With strong mid-level westerlies and
related deep-layer shear noted on recent VWPs from KLZK/KNQA, storms
capable of producing marginally severe hail and gusty winds may
occur through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early
evening across this region ahead of a cold front. The rather limited
thermodynamic environment is still expected to generally inhibit a
greater risk for organized severe storms. See Mesoscale Discussion
1948 for more details on the short-term severe threat for this area.
..Gleason.. 11/21/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Sun Nov 21 2021/
...Portions of Arkansas/ArkLaMiss...
Coincident with a broadly cyclonic upper-level flow regime,
thunderstorms should increase in coverage through the afternoon near
and ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A couple of stronger
storms could materialize mainly late this afternoon/early evening
with the possibility of small hail and/or gusty winds. However,
persistent cloud cover and related weak lapse rates and minimal
buoyancy (only a few hundred J/kg CAPE) are expected to limit the
potential for organized/sustained severe storms.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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