SPC AC 220544

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
   States on Monday.

   ...Discussion...
   An amplified upper flow field will continue across the U.S. today,
   as a trough shifts across the eastern U.S. and ridging spreads out
   of the western and into central portions of the country.  Later in
   the day and into the second half of the period, a second trough will
   approach -- and eventually reach -- the northwestern states.

   At the surface, a cold front will be in the process of moving off
   the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts early in the period.  By midday, the
   front will have cleared all but the Florida Peninsula; by the end of
   the period, the front will have progressed south of the Peninsula
   and through most of the Gulf of Mexico.

   Showers accompanying the frontal advance will extend from New
   England to southern Louisiana and South Texas at the start of the
   period.  A few lightning flashes may occur within this band, but
   coverage should remain below 10% inland.  The one exception will be
   across Florida, where a few thunderstorms will remain possible into
   the evening, until the cold front clears the state overnight.

   A few flashes may also occur within an area of showery precipitation
   that will spread into the Pacific Northwest in the wake of a cold
   front that will advance inland through the evening.  However, sparse
   coverage is anticipated, precluding the need for a thunder area.

   ..Goss/Jirak.. 11/22/2021

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