Storm Prediction Center Nov 23, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Nov 23, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Updated: Tue Nov 23 05:27:14 UTC 2021 (

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Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Graphic

Day 1 Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic

20211123 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Tornado Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic

20211123 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Wind Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

20211123 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Hail Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

   SPC AC 230527

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1127 PM CST Mon Nov 22 2021

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

   ...Discussion...
   A high-amplitude/progressive upper flow pattern will continue across
   the U.S. today, with a trough vacating the eastern U.S. while a
   second translates steadily across the West.  In between, ridging
   will shift from the Plains to the Appalachians through the period.

   At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail east of the
   Mississippi, though a cold front -- associated with the progressing
   western U.S. upper trough -- will cross the northern/central Plains
   through the second half of the period.  Meanwhile, high pressure
   will expand across the West in the wake of the advancing front.

   As a result of prior frontal passage, a dry/continental airmass will
   reside across the U.S. through the period.  Weak return of an
   incompletely modified Gulf boundary layer is expected across
   southeastern Texas as low-level flow turns southerly ahead of the
   approaching western system, but with the airmass to remain
   convectively stable, thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
   through Wednesday morning.

   ..Goss.. 11/23/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z