Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 231945
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Tue Nov 23 2021
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are necessary with the 20z update, as thunderstorms are
not expected through the end of the period.
..Leitman.. 11/23/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Nov 23 2021/
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive but amplified large-scale pattern will continue,
highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great
Basin/Rockies and an eastward-building upper ridge over the Midwest
and Great Lakes. The general prevalence of dry/stable conditions
will likely preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS. One potential
exception for a couple of lightning flashes might be tonight across
southern/eastern Arizona and the Four Corners area, although
thermodynamic profiles will be quite marginal and thunderstorm
probabilities are expected to remain very low (below 10 percent).
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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