Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 240534
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Tue Nov 23 2021
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Non-severe thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight from
parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move across the north-central U.S. today.
Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain across much of the
south-central U.S. Low-level moisture advection in the southern
Plains will gradually increase surface dewpoints into the lower to
mid 60s F across much of southern and east-central Texas. This will
contribute to weak destabilization by late afternoon ahead of a cold
front moving southeastward across the central Plains and southern
High Plains. Thunderstorm development will become possible along the
axis of a strengthening low-level jet early this evening from
central Texas north-northeastward into eastern Oklahoma. The
potential for thunder will increase later during evening and into
the overnight period. Thunderstorms will become possible
east-northeastward across parts of the Ozarks and into the mid
Mississippi Valley along the axis of the low-level jet. Much of this
activity will remain elevated. Instability is expected to be too
weak from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley for a
severe threat.
..Broyles/Jirak.. 11/24/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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