Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 241944
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Wed Nov 24 2021
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight from parts of
the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.
...20z Update...
The previous outlook remains on track and no changes are needed with
the 20z update. See previous discussion below for forecast details.
..Leitman.. 11/24/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021/
...East/southeast Texas and southern Plains/Ozarks...
Influenced by amplifying belts of split westerlies, a
southeastward-moving cold front will approach the region late
tonight/early Thanksgiving morning. A relatively moist air mass
preceding the front along with increasing forcing for ascent
including frontal uplift will contribute to increasing thunderstorm
coverage from late-evening onward, initially across eastern Oklahoma
and north Texas including the DFW Metroplex vicinity, and
subsequently broader parts of the Ozarks/ArkLaTex and east/southeast
Texas overnight.
It is possible that a few stronger/more organized storms may
materialize late tonight across a broad part of
east-central/southeast Texas including the I-35/I-45 vicinities.
This would be influenced by thunderstorms occurring immediately near
the front and perhaps within a zone of pre-frontal confluence where
boundary layer inhibition will be relatively weak. While sufficient,
albeit modest, buoyancy and moderately strong low-level/deep-layer
shear could support some weak/transient supercells and other
semi-organized storms capable of small hail/gusty winds, the
potential for severe thunderstorms is currently expected to remain
low.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
| 
)
