Nov 25, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 25 00:49:29 UTC 2021 (20211125 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211125 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211125 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211125 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211125 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211125 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 250049

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0649 PM CST Wed Nov 24 2021

   Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of
   the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

   ...Discussion...
   Eastward progression of a north-central U.S. upper trough, toward
   the Great Lakes/Midwest, will continue overnight.  This will support
   continued eastward/southeastward advance of a cold front, that
   currently stretches from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma and the
   Texas South Plains region.

   Showers have begun to develop near the front, from Illinois to
   northwestern Texas, and in a zone of pre-frontal warm advection zone
   over central/eastern portions of Texas.  With time, expect scattered
   thunderstorms to evolve from the Ozarks southward.

   Instability is forecast to remain quite limited across the region,
   which should limit convective intensity.  Small hail will be
   possible with elevated storms over northern portions of this region,
   but severe-caliber hail is not expected.  Farther south into
   eastern/southeastern portions of Texas, a more moist boundary layer
   is indicated, beneath weak mid-level lapse rates.  While some
   low-level veering of the wind field is indicated, weaker flow above
   -- in the 850 to 700mb layer -- combined with limited CAPE should
   preclude an appreciable risk for even a brief/weak tornado.

   ..Goss.. 11/25/2021

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