Nov 25, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 25 05:32:04 UTC 2021 (20211125 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211125 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211125 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211125 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211125 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211125 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 250532

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1132 PM CST Wed Nov 24 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the Texas Hill
   Country/south Texas across the Arklatex and into Mississippi Delta
   region today.  Severe weather is not expected.

   ...Discussion...
   An upper trough will shift eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and
   Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys today, reaching the Lower
   Lakes and Appalachians by Friday morning.  Meanwhile, a low over
   northern Baja/the Bay of California is progged to become
   increasingly cut off from the westerlies, and retrograde slowly
   southwestward through the period.

   At the surface, a cold front -- accompanying the progressive upper
   trough -- should extend from lower Michigan to the Texas Coastal
   Plain early.  The front will move steadily eastward/southeastward,
   crossing the Ohio/Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys through the
   afternoon and evening, and then across the Appalachians and into the
   East Coast states late.

   Shower activity will accompany the front, with the greatest
   potential for thunderstorms from western Tennessee/Arkansas
   southwestward.  Early in the period, a weakly rotating cell or two
   will be possible, within the zone of pre-frontal warm advection
   where low-level veering of the wind field will be present.  Severe
   weather appears unlikely however, especially beyond mid morning as
   low-level flow relaxes/veers.

   Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.

   ..Goss/Karstens.. 11/25/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z