Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 251929
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
While severe storms are not expected, thunderstorms remain possible
this Thanksgiving Day across southern/southeast Texas and southwest
Louisiana.
...20z Update...
Adjustments to the thunder area were made to account for the
continued southward motion of the cold front, otherwise the previous
forecast reasoning remains on track.
..Bunting.. 11/25/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Thu Nov 25 2021/
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive semi-amplified belt of westerlies will prevail over
the CONUS, while a closed southern-stream low becomes increasingly
cut-off over Baja. As a cold front continues southeastward,
thunderstorm potential across parts of Texas into Louisiana will
further diminish and be increasingly confined to near-coastal/Deep
South Texas through the afternoon, and focused offshore over the
western Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Factors such as weak lapse rates
and weak low/mid-level winds within the warm sector and near the
front suggest that severe storms are unlikely today.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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