Nov 26, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 26 05:36:04 UTC 2021 (20211126 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211126 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211126 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211126 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211126 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211126 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 260536

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   No thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the contiguous
   United States on Friday.

   ...Discussion...
   Broad upper cyclonic flow will continue over the eastern U.S.
   Friday, surrounding an evolving low that will shift across the
   Northeast/New England through the period.  In the wake of this
   feature, lower-amplitude northwesterly flow will evolve with time. 
   The only other feature of interest aloft will be a closed low
   forecast to migrate across northwestern Mexico, and approach
   southern New Mexico/far West Texas late.

   At the surface, a cold front will continue shifting off the East
   Coast, while lingering across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.  Weak
   instability ahead of the front, and a stable continental airmass
   affecting much of the U.S. behind the front, will preclude any
   appreciable thunder potential through the period.

   ..Goss/Karstens.. 11/26/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z