Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 261942
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Gleason.. 11/26/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021/
...West TX...
A closed mid-level low in the southern stream near the Gulf of CA
should progress into northern Chihuahua by 12Z. While steep
mid-level lapse rates are not progged to translate east of Sonora,
minimal MUCAPE (up to around 100 J/kg) might spread across the
international border as far east as the Permian Basin and Edwards
Plateau. A couple lightning flashes may be possible in the early
morning within the warm/moist advection regime downstream of the
closed low. Given the modest forcing for ascent amid flimsy buoyancy
and weak upper lapse rates for charge separation, overall thunder
probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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