Nov 27, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 27 05:29:33 UTC 2021 (20211127 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211127 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211127 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211127 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211127 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211127 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270529

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
   on Saturday.

   ...Discussion...
   Gradual amplification of the upper flow pattern over the U.S. is
   expected today, as short-wave troughing progressing southeastward
   across the Canadian Priairie provinces and northern/central Plains
   states eventually begins phasing with a southern-stream trough
   crossing the south-central states.  The eventual result will be a
   broad trough over the East, and upstream ridging over the West.

   At the surface, a weak low/front will shift out of the Plains and
   across the mid and lower MS/OH/TN valleys with time, while high
   pressure prevails elsewhere.

   With a continental airmass largely in place over the U.S., little
   potential for thunderstorms is evident.  The lone exception could be
   across the Texas vicinity, where a few sporadic lightning flashes
   could occur with weak/elevated convection, within an area of
   QG-forced precipitation associated with the aforementioned upper
   short-wave trough.  However, coverage appears likely to remain
   sparse, precluding inclusion of the 10% area.

   ..Goss/Elliott.. 11/27/2021

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