Nov 28, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 28 00:39:22 UTC 2021 (20211128 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211128 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211128 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211128 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211128 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211128 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 280039

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0639 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

   Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States
   through early Sunday.

   ...Discussion...
   A weak surface low and associated cold front continue shifting
   eastward across the Ohio Valley, and southeastward across the mid
   Mississippi Valley and Ozarks region, and is now entering the
   southern Plains.  

   Showers associated with this front/low are ongoing across the Great
   Lakes and middle and upper Ohio Valley area, but lack of appreciable
   instability precludes any meaningful potential for more than a stray
   lighting flash.

   Farther southwestward, widespread rain and rain showers are ongoing
   across parts of Texas and into Louisiana and vicinity, near an upper
   low crossing Texas.  Meager instability, at best, suggests little
   risk for any more than a few sporadic lightning flashes.

   Finally, upslope-aided precipitation continues across the
   Washington/northern Idaho vicinity, but here too, minimal
   instability suggests minimal potential for more than a lightning
   flash or two.

   Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected overnight.

   ..Goss.. 11/28/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z