Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 281237
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Sun Nov 28 2021
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon near Lake
Erie.
...Synopsis...
The general pattern of a flat ridge west and a deeper trough east
will persist over the CONUS through early Monday. The only
substantial low-level moisture is confined to the western Gulf of
Mexico, and will remain offshore through the period, precluding
thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. A possible
exception will be near the lower Great Lakes, as an embedded
shortwave trough moves from Lake Superior this morning to Lake Erie
this afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates, temperatures near -20
C at 700 mb, and SBCAPE near 100 J/kg could be sufficient for
isolated lightning flashes in shallow convection near Lake Erie this
afternoon.
..Thompson.. 11/28/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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