Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 281607
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CST Sun Nov 28 2021
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the late afternoon and early
evening near Lake Erie.
...Lake Erie...
A shortwave trough will progress from the central Great Lakes to the
Northeast through tonight. Inversion heights will rise as 800-600 mb
temperatures cool with passage of the trough later this afternoon.
This combined with steep low-level lapse rates amid relatively warm
lake temperatures of 8-10 C will support meager SBCAPE. While
alignment of wind vectors will largely orient more perpendicular to
the lake with time, the favorable thermodynamic profile should favor
potential for a few lightning flashes in bursts of convective snow
showers during the late afternoon and early evening.
..Grams/Lyons.. 11/28/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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