Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 010519
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur across the lower Ohio Valley late
this morning into mid afternoon.
...Lower Ohio Valley...
Strong short-wave trough is expected to dig across the mid-MS Valley
into the lower OH valley by 18z before translating into the southern
Appalachians and off the Southeast Coast by the end of the period.
Large-sale forcing, and subsequent cooling/moistening mid levels,
will contribute to weak buoyancy across the lower OH Valley region
later this morning into mid afternoon despite weak moisture return.
Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb could yield
around 300 J/kg MUCAPE and weak warm advection ahead of the short
wave should prove sufficient for weak convection. Strongest updrafts
may produce a few flashes of lightning; however thunderstorms should
remain mostly isolated.
..Darrow/Moore.. 12/01/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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