Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 011251
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Wed Dec 01 2021
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur across the lower Ohio Valley late
this morning into this afternoon.
...Lower OH Valley area through this afternoon...
A midlevel shortwave trough over MO/IA this morning will continue to
progress east-southeastward over the middle MS and lower OH Valleys
though this afternoon. A small increase in low-level moisture is
expected immediately in advance of this trough during the day
beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 7 C/km, with 100-200 J/kg
of MUCAPE possible by midday into this afternoon. Though any
convection will be elevated and weak, cloud depth should be
sufficient for mixed phase and charge separation, with isolated
lighting flashes possible from late morning into the afternoon.
Otherwise, any convection with a persistent southern stream trough
should remain over northern Mexico, and any convection overnight
should remain off the southeast Atlantic coast as the OH/TN Valley
midlevel trough approaches the modifying air mass over the Gulf
Stream.
..Thompson.. 12/01/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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