Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 011609
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CST Wed Dec 01 2021
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible into early evening across
parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into Kentucky and Tennessee.
...Mid-MS Valley to KY/TN...
A flurry of lightning flashes occurred over the past few hours
across southeast MO and southern IL within an arc of elevated
convection in the forced ascent corridor ahead of a progressive
shortwave trough. Area 12Z RAOBs and recent AMDAR data near Memphis
and Nashville suggest buoyancy in this regime is scant and spatially
confined within a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate plume,
rendering above-average uncertainty in the longevity of the isolated
thunderstorm threat. CAM guidance that tended to more accurately
simulate the ongoing convection suggests an overall decrease this
afternoon as large-scale ascent appears to diminish slightly. Still,
potential for very isolated thunderstorms may persist farther east
in TN/KY through early evening before instability/buoyancy becomes
negligible.
..Grams/Lyons.. 12/01/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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