Dec 2, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Dec 2 05:58:16 UTC 2021 (20211202 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211202 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211202 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211202 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211202 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211202 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 020558

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1158 PM CST Wed Dec 01 2021

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of weak thunderstorms are possible near the Rio Grande
   River and higher terrain of southwest Texas, but the risk of
   thunderstorms appears negligible elsewhere today and tonight.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Northwest mid-level flow will be in place across most of the
   continental United States today. At the surface, a cold front will
   advance southeastward into the Ohio Valley as weak low-level
   moisture return takes place across parts of Texas. Some instability
   should develop in the Rio Grande Valley of west and southwest Texas
   this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this
   afternoon in the mountains of west Texas. However, this activity
   should remain sub-severe. Elsewhere across the continental United
   States, thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

   ..Broyles/Moore.. 12/02/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z