Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 021231
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Thu Dec 02 2021
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes will be possible later this afternoon and
early tonight close to the Texas Big Bend.
...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern remains largely unchanged from the past few
days, with a flat ridge over the Great Basin and strong
west-northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Mid
Atlantic. A persistent southern stream trough will continue to
weaken slowly as subtle, ejecting speed maxima translate from
northern Mexico to TX through early Friday. Gradual air mass
modification will continue in a return flow regime across the
northwest Gulf of Mexico into coastal TX, but negligible forcing for
ascent and relatively warm temperature profiles in the mid levels do
not support deep convection/thunderstorms within the returning
moisture. Isolated lightning flashes may occur farther west near
the Rio Grande in the vicinity of the Big Bend late this afternoon
into early tonight. However, destabilization will be weak and
convective inhibition should be slow to weaken, thus keeping
thunderstorm probabilities low and confined to near the
international border.
..Thompson.. 12/02/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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