Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 021942
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Thu Dec 02 2021
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Very isolated thunderstorms may brush the Texas Big Bend this
evening.
...20z Update...
The previous outlook remains on track and changes are unnecessary
with the 20z update. Generally quiescent weather conditions will
encompass much of the CONUS the remainder of the period, while a few
thunderstorms will be possible near the TX Big Bend this evening.
..Leitman.. 12/02/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Thu Dec 02 2021/
...TX Big Bend...
Scattered convection that can be sustained across parts of Chihuahua
during the late afternoon and early evening may brush the
international border area as it weakens through the evening. While
surface-based parcels are expected to be capped with plentiful MLCIN
in southwest TX, weak moist advection near 700 mb may yield meager
elevated buoyancy within the steep lapse rate environment. The lack
of stronger forcing for ascent suggests thunderstorm probabilities
are only around 10 percent.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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