Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 040040
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Fri Dec 03 2021
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of flashes of lightning may be noted from northeast Texas
into Arkansas overnight. However, this activity will be very
sparse.
...01z Update...
Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough ejecting
northeast into the Arklatex region. Extensive mid-high cloudiness
ahead of this feature reflects the large-scale forcing that will
spread across the lower MS Valley into western TN late. A few
lightning strikes were noted with elevated convection earlier today
but 04/00z soundings ahead of this feature are not particularly
buoyant, though steep lapse rates are noted. FWD/SHV/LZK are all
capped and any convection capable of producing lightning will be
rooted near/above 850mb. Will maintain 10% probability for
thunderstorms ahead of the short wave but the prospect for lightning
will remain low given the observed soundings.
..Darrow.. 12/04/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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