Dec 5, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Dec 5 00:31:12 UTC 2021 (20211205 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211205 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211205 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211205 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211205 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211205 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 050031

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 PM CST Sat Dec 04 2021

   Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible from east Texas and southern
   Oklahoma, through parts of the mid South.

   ...01z Update...

   Weak upper vort/short-wave trough has sheared east across northern
   AL and earlier convection, with isolated lightning, has mostly
   dissipated. A secondary upper vort is settling east-southeast across
   the Arklatex this evening and this feature remains lightning-free
   with very little convection. However, a few thunderstorms have
   developed, and continue, within deeper moisture axis across the
   upper TX Coastal region. This activity has shown enough longevity to
   suggest it may not dissipate quickly this evening. Will extend
   thunder probabilities south to include more of southeast TX in
   thunder.

   00z sounding from SHV exhibited substantial conditional instability
   this evening with steep lapse rates. While surface-based parcels are
   inhibited, northern extent of this air mass will experience
   increasing low-level warm advection later tonight as southern branch
   of LLJ begins to strengthen across northeast TX/southeast OK into
   western AR. Given the thermodynamic profile at SHV there is some
   concern for robust elevated convection after midnight. At this time
   it appears convection will remain somewhat isolated and vertical
   shear is not forecast to be that strong. While some hail could be
   noted with the strongest updrafts, will not introduce severe
   probabilities across this region as hail sizes should remain mostly
   below 1 inch.

   ..Darrow.. 12/05/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z