Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 070510
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CST Mon Dec 06 2021
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level cyclonic flow regime will persist across much of
the CONUS today and tonight. An embedded shortwave trough will
migrate through larger-scale flow from TX/northeast Mexico toward
the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday morning. The upper pattern
will remain bifurcated across the western U.S. as an upper
low/trough develops southward offshore from the CA coast and an
upper ridge over the northern Intermountain region pushes eastward
and is replaced by a shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest.
At the surface, post-frontal high pressure will encompass much of
the eastern half of the CONUS, leading to mostly stable conditions
and precluding a risk of severe thunderstorms. However, modest
low/mid level warm advection will occur across the Southeast as the
TX shortwave trough ejects eastward during the afternoon and into
the overnight hours. Shallow elevated convection, bringing mainly
rain showers is expected with this warm advection regime, but a few
lightning flashes are possible from southern LA into SC with any
deeper cores that develop given modest midlevel lapse rates and cold
temperatures aloft.
..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/07/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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