Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 071921
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CST Tue Dec 07 2021
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States today and tonight.
No changes were made to the previous outlook. Glancing low-level
warm advection north of a surface front combined with weak elevated
instability may yet produce thunderstorms after 09Z, mainly across
AL, GA and SC.
..Jewell.. 12/07/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Dec 07 2021/
...Southeast US...
Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today
and tonight. The exception will be over the southeast US, where an
approaching upper trough over TX will interact with a weak
baroclinic zone over the Gulf Coast region. Model guidance remains
consistent in the development of scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms - mainly after 06z tonight - from LA/MS into the
Carolinas. This deep convection will be primarily elevated above a
stable near-surface layer, with no severe threat anticipated.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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