Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 081613
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Wed Dec 08 2021
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado may occur this
afternoon from northwestern Florida and the eastern Florida
Panhandle to extreme southern South Carolina.
...GA/FL...
A broad upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS today, with the
primary trough axis rotating across the central Appalachians into
the Mid-Atlantic region. The southern fringes of the stronger
westerlies extend as far south as north/central FL. Meanwhile, the
associated surface cold front is sagging southward across southern
GA into north FL. A warm/moist air mass is present ahead of the
front, where sufficient afternoon CAPE values will promote the
development of scattered thunderstorms. Low-level winds are
strongly veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear in the warm
sector. Nevertheless, CAM solutions suggest a few cells will form
across the MRGL risk area later today. 30+ knot southwesterly winds
just above the surface may be sufficient to result in locally
gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. Present indications
are that the activity will remain rather disorganized.
..Hart/Lyons.. 12/08/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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