Jacksonville, FL...Gainesville, FL...Lakeside, FL...Jacksonville Beach, FL...St. Marys, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
15,780
1,873,044
Jacksonville, FL...Gainesville, FL...Lakeside, FL...Jacksonville Beach, FL...St. Marys, GA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
15,857
1,873,817
Jacksonville, FL...Gainesville, FL...Lakeside, FL...Palm Valley, FL...Jacksonville Beach, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 081925
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Wed Dec 08 2021
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief/weak tornado may occur this
afternoon from far southern Georgia into northern Florida.
Only minor changes were made to the previous outlook, removing
marginal risk probabilities behind the cold front. Otherwise,
favorable deep-layer shear combined with weak instability over land
may yet yield an isolated severe report over land this afternoon.
For updated information about northern Florida, see mesoscale
discussion 1971.
..Jewell.. 12/08/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Wed Dec 08 2021/
...GA/FL...
A broad upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS today, with the
primary trough axis rotating across the central Appalachians into
the Mid-Atlantic region. The southern fringes of the stronger
westerlies extend as far south as north/central FL. Meanwhile, the
associated surface cold front is sagging southward across southern
GA into north FL. A warm/moist air mass is present ahead of the
front, where sufficient afternoon CAPE values will promote the
development of scattered thunderstorms. Low-level winds are
strongly veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear in the warm
sector. Nevertheless, CAM solutions suggest a few cells will form
across the MRGL risk area later today. 30+ knot southwesterly winds
just above the surface may be sufficient to result in locally
gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. Present indications
are that the activity will remain rather disorganized.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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