Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 090527
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Wed Dec 08 2021
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Discussion...
Water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over the
central High Plains late this evening. This feature is forecast to
translate into the mid MS Valley early in the period then across the
OH Valley into New England by 10/12z. Weak height falls and
associated large-scale forcing will spread well north of appreciable
moisture which is currently suppressed across lower latitudes. For
this reason thunderstorm activity is not expected ahead of this
feature. However, a very weak disturbance appears to be located over
northern Mexico at this time. This feature is forecast to eject
northeast across LA by 18z remaining low amplitude as it moves
toward AL into GA during the overnight hours. Weak low-level warm
advection should also contribute to lift atop the boundary layer
that should encourage elevated convection. Forecast soundings
suggest adequate buoyancy for a few flashes of lighting with the
strongest updrafts.
Farther northwest across coastal WA/OR, 500mb speed max is forecast
to approach the Pacific Northwest coast by 18z along with an
associated weak surface trough. Cold mid-level temperatures and
steep lapse rates should support scattered convection as onshore
flow increases with frontal passage. Lightning appears possible with
the stronger updrafts, mostly offshore or near the coast.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/09/2021
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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