Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 100030
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Thu Dec 09 2021
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...Gulf States...
Low-amplitude disturbance is translating northeast across
MS/southeast LA early this evening. This feature appears responsible
for weak supercells that have now progressed into southern MS and
weakened. 00z sounding from LIX exhibits MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg
with surface parcels buoyant within a poor lapse rate environment.
However, downstream boundary-layer air mass is more stable and any
thunderstorms that form ahead of this feature should become
increasingly elevated. Soundings at both BMX and FCC suggest
significant destabilization is necessary for deep convection capable
of generating lightning. Even so, a few thunderstorms may develop
later tonight as elevated buoyancy increases ahead of the weak
disturbance.
..Darrow.. 12/10/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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