Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 121927
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Sun Dec 12 2021
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across the coastal Pacific
Northwest through tonight.
No changes were made to the existing outlook.
..Jewell.. 12/12/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Sun Dec 12 2021/
...Synopsis...
A deep midlevel trough and associated cold air aloft/steep lapse
rates, as evidenced by the large area of low-topped convection west
of the WA/OR coasts, will spread slowly inland and southward through
the outlook period. Weak buoyancy will be possible close to the
coast in this flow regime, where isolated lightning flashes will be
possible through the period with convective cells spreading inland.
Otherwise, low-level moisture will linger along and south of a
baroclinic zone drifting into central FL. Some shallow convection
is expected along the front and along a separate pre-frontal band
across southeast FL, but a pronounced stable layer near 700 mb
suggests that convection deep enough to produce lightning is
unlikely.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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